With less than than a month away from NBA training camps starting to open up, most teams have packed their rosters past the maximum capacity. You are allowed to have up to 20 players in training camp via Exhibit 10 contracts and every year teams do this so they can evaluate at as many players as they can before finalizing the opening day roster. This is so they can get a look at young, fringe NBA talent to decide whether or not they deserve some sort of opportunity. It’s a low stakes gamble for all of these teams and the Rockets are no different.
Going into training camp, the Rockets have 19 players under roster.
Rockets Roster
Standard contracts:
John Wall
Eric Gordon
Christian Wood
Jae’Sean Tate
Daniel Theis
Danuel House
Kevin Porter Jr.
David Nwaba
Kenyon Martin Jr.
D.J. Augustin
Jalen Green
Alperen Sengun
Usman Garuba
Josh Christopher
Khyri Thomas
Matthew Hurt (two-way deal)
Exhibit 10 contracts:
Armoni Brooks
Tyler Bey
Daishen Nix
Because they added five new players to the roster in the summer and only let a couple walk, Houston is in a bit of a roster crunch. The opening day roster isn’t going to surprise anyone at this point because so many of the deals are multi-year. However, let’s break down what likely is going to happen.
Locks
This isn’t going to surprise anybody, but John Wall, Eric Gordon, Christian Wood, Jae’Sean Tate, Daniel Theis, Danuel House, Kevin Porter Jr., David Nwaba, Kenyon Martin Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Usman Garuba, and Josh Christopher are going to make the roster. The Rockets have significant investment in these guys long-term and none have showed that they don’t belong in the NBA (yet). That’s 13 locks already so we’re getting close.
Likely making it, but not 100%
Look, it would be a surprise if Matthew Hurt or D.J. Augustin is waived in favor of a younger, more exciting prospect. Houston just signed Hurt to his two-way deal and Augustine has a really team-friendly deal that would be hard to waive. However, it’s not crazy enough to be taken off the table. Assuming they both make it, that’s 15 spots down.
Fighting for an opportunity
You would think Khyri Thomas would have some security going into training camp as he’s the only one in this group with a multi-year deal, but that’s the furthest thing from the truth. It may give him a leg up, but Thomas’ contract is fully non-guaranteed. This means the Rockets could cut bait with him if someone else in this group really blows them away. At this moment, I would say Armoni Brooks, Tyler Bey, and Daishen Nix are underdogs to make the opening day roster though. However, the way these things usually work is teams use a two-way deal on someone before the season (in this instance, Matthew Hurt) and one mid-season. Since Brooks, Bey, and Nix will likely suit up for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, they’ll all be competing for Houston’s finals two-way spot and it’ll be interesting to see who’s able to grab it.
How will Houston’s rotation look?
Trying to predict what Houston’s eventual rotation will look like feels like a fool’s errand. Normally, it’s a pretty simple exercise. With veteran-laiden teams trying to compete, the veterans get the benefit of the doubt and the young players try to fit in where they can (if at all). With rebuilding teams, there usually aren’t many veterans to begin with, but if there are, they take a backseat to rookie development. The Rockets are in that confusing middle ground because while they’re definitely a rebuilding team, they still have eight players 25-years or older on the roster.
An NBA coach’s first instinct is to favor veterans over young players, but Stephen Silas will have to strike an appropriate balance between winning games and player development. That’s a lot to ask of a sophomore head coach, but Silas is self-aware enough to know that the Rockets aren’t going to be a playoff team next season. Earlier this week, I predicted what Houston’s opening day starting lineup would be, but I wouldn’t expect that unit to be set in stone. Given what this roster is, you have to consider that there’s a high probability of trade and injuries.
Point Guard – John Wall
Shooting Guard – Kevin Porter Jr.
Small Forward – Jae’Sean Tate
Power Forward – Christian Wood
Center – Daniel Theis
When you analyze what the Rockets did with their rotations last season, you can safely infer that Silas leans more traditional than former head coach Mike D’Antoni. There may be some thought about Houston starting a three-guard unit that includes Jalen Green, but you have to keep in mind that Silas was even hesitant to play Eric Gordon at small forward. Green will almost assuredly still reach about 30 minutes per game next season, but his tenure in Houston may start off the bench.
It’s pretty clear that Houston views Kevin Porter Jr. as a point guard, and for good reason. While I think they’ll start together, I would expect Porter Jr.’s minutes to be staggered with John Wall’s. Similar staggering may happen between Daniel Theis and Christian Wood at center. The rest of Houston’s rotation would round out with Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, Danuel House, David Nwaba, Kenyon Martin Jr., and possibly Alperen Sengun. While he played 20 minutes a game last season, I doubt Augustine will see the floor as much at the start of this season due to the crowded back court.
You missed some players there. What gives?
In an ideal world, Houston has the ability to play all their rookies next season. That’s just not the case for this Rockets team though. Josh Christopher, Usman Garuba, and Alperen Sengun are all candidates to play heavy minutes in the G League next season. Houston’s rotation is just packed with veterans and it’s better for development to actually play with the Vipers than watching games off the bench. There could be a lot of angry fans next season, but until there are trades and/or contract buyouts, there’s just not many other options.
For what it’s worth, the Rockets have had a lot of success stories with their G League program, including most recently, Hawks center Clint Capela. Someone like Garuba could use some time polishing his offensive game with the Vipers and Christopher could learn to cut the diet of bad mid-range jumpers out of his game. Also, as polished as Sengun is as a prospect, the Rockets would like to see him shoot threes one day. The Vipers could provide an opportunity for him to get comfortable doing so.
Too many people view the G League as a prison sentence for young players, when really it’s a breeding ground for awesome talent. If you’re not a top pick in the draft, there’s no shame in spending time with an organization’s affiliate.
With all this stuff, it’s important to remember that the Rockets are still in a transition phase as a franchise. Nothing is set in stone including the roster and it’s lineups. We’ll have to watch and see what GM Rafael Stone and coach Silas do as a tandem over the next few months with this group of players.
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